Canadian National Railway Sets Bold Grain Shipping Targets

Post by : Amit

CN's Big Grain Bet: Redefining Canada's Agricultural Supply Chain

In an assertive move aimed at reshaping the dynamics of Canadian agri-logistics, Canadian National Railway (CN) has unveiled ambitious new targets for grain shipments for the upcoming 2025–2026 crop year. The goal? Transport 27 million metric tonnes (MMT) of grain and processed grain products—matching the record set in 2020–2021. This move is more than just a logistics upgrade; it signals an aggressive pivot toward performance optimization, strategic investments, and an acknowledgment of Canada’s evolving role in global food security.

As climate events reshape growing seasons, geopolitical tensions reroute trade corridors, and consumers demand faster delivery, CN’s grain plan signals a calculated response to shifting pressures—both at home and abroad.

Pushing the Limits: Inside the 27 MMT Target

The railway giant’s new plan outlines a bold target of 27 MMT—a figure that pushes the boundary of CN’s past performance, essentially committing to the same all-time high that was achieved under highly favorable crop and weather conditions four years ago. While it might seem optimistic to aim for a repeat of 2020–2021, the company has come prepared with expanded fleet capacity, smarter digital infrastructure, and more granular coordination with grain producers and processors across the Canadian Prairies.

The timing couldn’t be more critical. In recent years, Canada’s grain producers have faced volatile harvest outcomes due to droughts in Alberta and Saskatchewan, excessive rains in Manitoba, and logistical bottlenecks on both coasts. In this context, CN’s announcement isn’t just a public relations gesture—it’s a firm operational commitment to overcoming systemic hurdles that have long plagued the sector.

Lessons from the Past, Tools for the Future

In 2021–22, shipments plummeted to just 18.2 MMT—down nearly a third from the previous year—largely due to one of the worst droughts in Canadian history. That sharp drop highlighted the vulnerabilities in Canada’s agriculture-rail supply chain. From inadequate grain bin space to congested ports, every link in the chain came under stress.

In response, CN has taken a layered approach to risk mitigation. The railway has bolstered its grain car fleet by acquiring over 1,000 new high-capacity grain hopper cars—each capable of carrying up to 15% more product than legacy models. It has also modernized its mainline tracks and added capacity on key routes between the Prairies and major export terminals in Vancouver and Prince Rupert.

More critically, CN has introduced smarter rail traffic control systems using AI-based analytics, predictive weather modeling, and real-time fleet tracking. This is designed to improve reliability, reduce bottlenecks, and enable better coordination between grain elevators, ports, and rail hubs. These technological enhancements allow CN to operate more efficiently, even in less-than-ideal weather or during peak harvest seasons.

Why the Global Grain Market Is Watching

CN’s latest plan isn’t unfolding in isolation. The global food supply chain has entered a state of prolonged uncertainty. From the war in Ukraine—which has disrupted one of the world’s largest grain exporters—to export restrictions in India and climate-fueled crop failures in Africa and South America, the world is increasingly looking to stable producers like Canada.

Canadian wheat, barley, canola, and soybeans are now more critical to global markets than ever. CN's leadership understands this pivot and is positioning the company—and by extension, Canada—to fill supply gaps in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.

CN executives have also emphasized that the plan is export-focused. “We’re not just moving grain across provinces. We’re connecting the Canadian interior with global demand centers,” said Doug MacDonald, Executive Vice-President and Chief Marketing Officer. “With smart planning and responsive operations, we can move grain efficiently from farms to ships—and do it better than ever.”

Agri-Business Partnerships to Delivery

To meet these bold targets, CN isn’t acting alone. The company is engaging more directly with producers, grain companies, and inland terminal operators. Under its new Grain Plan, CN is integrating contract-based scheduling with real-time logistics data sharing, ensuring that harvest timing, rail availability, and terminal loading are more closely aligned.

This tighter coordination includes multi-year agreements with major agri-businesses like Viterra, Richardson International, and Cargill. These partnerships will allow better planning of peak volumes and ensure that elevator-to-port delivery windows are optimized. By working upstream in the supply chain, CN aims to reduce the guesswork that has often led to seasonal backlogs and underutilized railcars.

In addition, CN’s increased investment in crew hiring and training—particularly in remote and weather-sensitive regions—aims to avoid staffing shortages that have previously derailed operations during harvest peaks. The railway has already added hundreds of conductors and engineers to its Western Canada operations base, with more slated to begin training by year-end.

Environmental and Regulatory Dynamics

Sustainability is another cornerstone of CN’s plan. With Canada committing to more stringent greenhouse gas targets, CN has been investing in greener locomotives and exploring alternative fuel options. Each modernized grain car not only boosts capacity but also contributes to lower emissions per tonne moved.

The rail sector remains a more carbon-efficient mode of freight transport compared to trucking, and CN plans to highlight this advantage as part of its broader sustainability message. This will be crucial as ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) considerations become increasingly central to how international buyers evaluate their supply chains.

Regulatory dynamics also play a role. Canada’s Transport Ministry has signaled stronger oversight over grain movement performance, particularly after the 2021–22 collapse in shipments. CN’s preemptive planning and transparency in setting targets may help build trust with both regulators and export customers.

Weather Risk Still Looms Large

Despite the optimism and investments, not everything is under CN’s control. Weather remains the biggest variable in Canada’s grain logistics equation. While early indications for the 2025–26 crop year suggest a near-average harvest, growing conditions can shift rapidly.

Drought warnings in Alberta and inconsistent rainfall across the Prairies have already raised some concern. However, CN insists that its scalable model allows for flexibility. Should crop volumes exceed expectations, the company says it’s prepared to increase capacity deployment quickly.

The challenge lies not only in rail but in matching that speed with capacity at grain elevators and marine terminals. Port congestion—especially in Vancouver—remains a systemic chokepoint, and while CN has improved rail access, marine infrastructure remains a shared bottleneck.

Broader Impact on Canada’s Supply Chain Resilience

Beyond the numbers, CN’s grain shipment targets carry implications for Canada’s broader supply chain resilience. Grain exports are a bellwether for how well Canada's freight ecosystem functions—from rural infrastructure and labor availability to port management and international trade relationships.

If CN can meet or exceed its 27 MMT goal, it will mark a major credibility win for Canada on the world stage. Conversely, any significant shortfall could reignite criticism around rail bottlenecks and infrastructure gaps, especially with so much riding on food security and economic competitiveness.

The Stakes Are High

The year ahead will test not only CN’s operational strength but also its partnerships, planning accuracy, and agility in the face of environmental uncertainty. If successful, this campaign could set a new standard in bulk commodity logistics—and not just in Canada.

CN is betting on a future where precision logistics, smart planning, and technology-fueled visibility replace reactive, weather-dependent guesswork. By aiming for 27 MMT, CN is signaling that the time for incremental gains is over. Instead, it’s time for structural transformation.

As the global grain market tightens and trade routes grow more complex, Canada—and by extension, Canadian National Railway—may soon find itself not just participating in global agri-exports but leading them.

In this high-stakes race, every carload matters, every hour counts, and every harvest tells a story—not just of crops, but of coordination, climate resilience, and the future of food movement.

Canada National Railway, Shipping