Pacts, Power, and Fear: How Myanmar’s Junta Chief Still Controls the Nation

Post by : Saif

Myanmar is holding a general election, but one man remains at the center of power even though his name is not on the ballot. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the military junta, continues to shape the country’s future through control, fear, and carefully managed alliances.

Min Aung Hlaing, now 69 years old, has ruled Myanmar since February 2021, when he removed the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. That takeover sparked a brutal civil war that has displaced millions of people and destroyed large parts of the country. Rebel groups now control many border areas, and the military has suffered serious losses on the battlefield.

Despite these setbacks, Min Aung Hlaing has managed to stay in power. In a New Year speech, he said he plans to hand over “state responsibilities” after the election process is completed. However, many opposition parties are banned, including Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, and several others are boycotting the vote. Because of this, the United Nations and human rights groups say the election is not free or fair.

Experts and people familiar with the general say his strength lies not only in military force but also in his political skills. He has reduced pressure from inside the army by offering loyal officers powerful jobs and control over military-linked businesses. At the same time, he has arrested or sidelined officers he sees as threats, including at least one possible successor.

This careful balance has helped him survive criticism from within the armed forces, especially after repeated battlefield defeats. More than 16,600 civilians have been killed since the coup, according to international researchers, deepening anger against the military.

Min Aung Hlaing has also relied on trusted loyalists to manage foreign relations. China’s continued support has played a key role in keeping the junta afloat, both politically and militarily. Diplomats like Than Swe, a former United Nations ambassador, have helped the general slowly rebuild ties with regional groups such as ASEAN, which had distanced itself after the coup.

His interest in politics was clear long before the takeover. Even when Myanmar briefly moved toward civilian rule in the 2010s, Min Aung Hlaing continued meeting religious and community leaders, showing he wanted influence beyond the battlefield. Those who know him say he truly believed the military was justified in seizing power after Suu Kyi’s party won a landslide election victory in 2020.

Aung San Suu Kyi, now 80 years old, is serving a 27-year prison sentence on charges she denies. Unlike earlier periods of house arrest, little is known about her current condition. Attempts by foreign leaders to secure her release have failed, as the junta considers the issue a strict red line.

Recently, Min Aung Hlaing has hinted that he may step back from direct military command and move into a civilian political role after the elections. Under Myanmar’s constitution, the military still holds strong influence, including control over key ministries and the right to appoint lawmakers. Early election results show a military-backed party in the lead, suggesting the army’s grip will remain firm.

Even if leadership changes on the surface, analysts believe the military’s approach will not change much. While some officers may dislike Min Aung Hlaing’s methods, the system he built ensures that power stays within the same circle.

For the people of Myanmar, daily life remains hard. The war continues, the economy is weak, and hope for real democracy is fading. Elections may bring a new government, but as long as fear, patronage, and military control remain, true change looks far away.

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