Boeing Maintains 20-Year Aircraft Demand Forecast Despite Iran War and Market Uncertainty

Post by : Saif

Boeing has maintained its 20-year forecast for global commercial aircraft demand, expressing confidence that the aviation industry will continue to grow despite the ongoing Iran war, geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The forecast was released ahead of the Farnborough Airshow in the United Kingdom.

Boeing Expects Demand for Over 43,000 Aircraft

According to Boeing's latest Commercial Market Outlook, airlines around the world are expected to require 43,625 new commercial aircraft between 2026 and 2045. The forecast includes:

• 33,545 single-aisle aircraft
• 7,715 widebody aircraft
• 930 freighter aircraft
• 1,435 regional jets

The company said demand will be driven by both the replacement of older aircraft and the expansion of airline fleets to meet rising passenger numbers.

Iran War Has Limited Impact on Long-Term Outlook

Unlike Airbus, which recently lowered its aircraft demand forecast by one percent due to the Iran war and global trade uncertainty, Boeing has decided to keep its projections unchanged.

Boeing believes the current slowdown in aviation is temporary and does not expect the conflict or other geopolitical issues to significantly affect long-term demand for new aircraft.

Read more: Indonesia's Pertamina and Boeing Sign Agreement to Advance Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development

Passenger Traffic Expected to Recover

The company expects global passenger traffic to grow by 2.3% in 2026, lower than last year's growth of 5.3%. However, Boeing forecasts a stronger recovery over the next two years, with passenger traffic growth expected to reach 6–7% in 2027 and 5–6% in 2028.

The aircraft manufacturer said global air travel should return to its long-term growth trend by the end of 2028.

Aircraft Shortage Continues Worldwide

Boeing also highlighted that airlines continue to face a shortage of new aircraft because manufacturers are unable to produce planes fast enough to meet demand.

The company estimates there will be a shortage of nearly 2,000 aircraft entering 2026. Supply chain issues, production constraints and certification delays for aircraft such as the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 10 and 777-9 continue to slow deliveries.

China to Lead Future Aircraft Demand

Boeing expects China to account for 21% of global aircraft deliveries over the next two decades, making it the world's largest aviation market for new aircraft. Eurasia is expected to account for 20% of deliveries, while North America and South and Southeast Asia will each account for 19%.

Industry Outlook Remains Positive

Boeing said global passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4% annually over the next 20 years, while cargo traffic is projected to increase by 3.7% each year.

The company also expects the global commercial aircraft fleet to expand from around 28,000 aircraft in 2025 to nearly 50,000 aircraft by 2045, reflecting continued growth in international travel, tourism, trade and airline network expansion.

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